Data to explain why the stock market rising again and again how much Golden Flower will bloom

According to Shanghai Securities News reported Wednesday the story of the A shares are divided into upper and lower sets: the story of the morning show relatively flat first half; truly wonderful story in the afternoon to start a wave of more than a high wave. 15:00 to close, A shares on the Shanghai Composite Index rose 54 points, or 1.99 percent. 3 o'clock in the afternoon, Hong Kong stocks also rose by 3% (Hong Kong shares close at 4 o'clock in the afternoon hours). A day of stock, real estate and financial wishes to fly high together, are up more than 5%. Strength of property stocks is a landmark event: the small number of trading property stocks, Poly Real Estate was up nearly 9 percent, China Vanke A rose by 6%. Strong financial sector is a landmark event: Shanghai Pudong Development trading, China Merchants Bank up 7%. Under these circumstances, so we have a deja vu of the "bull market" feel. Feeling is unreliable, but data can be believed, we are today the most realistic data to explain why the stock market has risen again and again, and real estate stocks bore the brunt of what is leading the vanguard.

From "hot money" about

For the A shares in recent days, Hong Kong stocks continued strong, the reasons can be "hot money" is about. The latest research report by Citigroup said that in the past six weeks, the average weekly inflow of funds in Asia, especially Hong Kong's capital flows, the bull market has reached its peak in 2007 the inflow of funds weekly level. Statistics show that over the past four weeks in emerging markets equity fund of 12 billion U.S. dollars has been an influx of new funds; addition, China Hong Kong size of the current round of hot money, or up to 538 billion Hong Kong dollar. Industry experts have also said that the Chinese in Hong Kong as an international capital flows are a microcosm of the current global inflation prevailing in the market, as well as emerging markets will take the lead in the recovery of these two expectations, will continue to promote the influx of hot money in emerging markets. Of hot money, the recovery is expected to take the lead in the mainland China market naturally attractive.

On inflation expectations

The continued strength in property stocks in recent days, my point is: the real estate stocks rose the most solid foundation for the market expectations on inflation, while real estate is the first choice for anti-inflation weapons. The following three sets of data, from different angles to display the property market recovery is coming. This is strong support for property stocks data of the most loyal. Together to look at.

(1) personal mortgage loans more than doubled ring. 上证报Wednesday in the "new loans in May of about 500 billion note financing or zero growth is" one of the disclosure of the text: "May the new loans of the banking industry about 5,000 billion yuan. Analysts believe that in April and similar loans in May than the decline in Central Bank may be established to strengthen risk control considerations, but also by the impact of reduced loan demand. A number of banks from the local branches that since March, due to China's real estate market, property market turnover of large increase, resulting in individual mortgage loans more than doubled ring, which is personal loans in May the main reason for growth. " Mortgage lending data from the property market should be our most real, most basic data, "the individual mortgage loans more than doubled ring," that this is sufficient to explain the recent strength of the real estate section for it.

(2) outside the capital in March or subtle shift. Changes in the territory of foreign exchange reserves also shows that since March this year, the capital flows appears to be a subtle change. In recent months, as a result of the massive hot money inflows, the Hong Kong stock and property markets rebounded sharply. Mainland property market and the stock market is warming up with hot money inflows on this? Mysterious and unpredictable stock market funds, property funds are relatively inspection. For example, in mid-May in Hong Kong blue-chip developer Hang Lung Group Limited in a short span of a week were 4.5 billion yuan and 415 million from the city government of Dalian and Wuxi bought two pieces of land, showing that the number of foreign commercial real estate development have already commenced the downturn in China's market value was found.

(3) high-end room frequently looting the country. Agency's data shows that almost all parts of the country at the same time the high-end residential deep with all of the sudden burst of energy consumption. Statistics show that in April, Shenzhen villa the same period last year sales increased by 654.55%, and 1,2,3 are on the increase of 16.9%, 50.82% and 36.11%; in Beijing, the former villa in April sales cycle of songs and transactions in respect of each of the same period last year 42.8 percent growth and 48.4%; and in Shanghai, in April the sale and supply of villas has reached a 1.59:1 ratio. The villa is not just hot. Easy to show in China, Shanghai's high-end apartment sales have also increased significantly during the recent surge in price of which 20,000 yuan / square meter or more high-end apartments in the sharp rebound in trading volume. 20 days ago in May, the high-end apartment turnover reached an area of 179,300 square meters, the total trading volume in February was nearly 3 times. Hot scenes are not limited to the above-mentioned first-line cities. Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, such as the Yangtze River Delta II, three-city high-end residential, there have also been hot scene. Analysts said that with a large number of idle funds to the private entrepreneurs are high-end residential become their "High piggy bank", in order to avoid the possible onset of inflation.

Recently, a few days up Wanke B, and its price of AB shares have been quietly merged. Vanke AB dramatically Wednesday to close at 10.84 yuan are, the difference is: Vanke B was 10.84 Hong Kong dollars, while China Vanke A is 10.84 yuan. May 22 until June 3 ended seven trading days, Wanke B has risen by 20%; and the same time periods, the Vanke A rise of only 11%. In general, Hong Kong shares, B shares of the sensitivity of the hot money is more advanced than the A shares.

If "inflation", do come, you ready? (Huang)

(Disclaimer: This article will reflect the personal views of the author, for investors, do not represent the views of us, does not constitute investment advice. Investors which operate at your own risk.)