Stable external demand growth is an important security work - Review of the current business situation, one series
Review of the current business situation, one series
Secretary of Foreign Trade and the Ministry of Commerce
First, solid external demand growth on the current security significance
First, to promote economic growth. Law in national spending accounts, in 2007, consumption, investment and net export boost GDP growth, respectively, 4.7,4.6 and 2.6 percentage points. 2008, investment, consumption and net export boost GDP growth, respectively, 4.2,4.0 and 0.8 percentage points. Decline in external demand in 2008 is the main reason for decline in GDP growth. Second is to enhance the ability to resist risks.
Second, the continued sluggish external demand can not be ignored
A direct impact on external demand decline in exports, and will gradually transfer all areas of the national economy. 4 quarter of 2008 export growth rate fell 18.8 percentage points the previous quarter, down 4.3%, in 2009 a quarter of the export growth rate dropped 24 percentage points the previous quarter, decreased by 19.7% year-on-year. Studies have shown that exports will decline for a long period of time the impact of domestic consumption and investment. Years of 1978-2006 the export of data regression analysis showed that each 1% growth in exports, consumption growth will be driven by 0.68%, the domestic capital formation grew 0.74 percent. Similarly, exports decreased by 1% each, there will be 0.68 percent decline in consumption, domestic capital formation fell 0.74 percent, the effect of the cycle for about 2 years. Therefore, the decline in external demand will be for some time the current and future impact on all areas of the national economy.
Should be required for the decline in the external impact of the country since last year to take effective measures to actively expand domestic demand, consumption and investment have achieved rapid growth. However, investment in production capacity will eventually be formed, if the external demand for some time to come and consumption growth can not be reconciled, there is likely to exacerbate economic imbalances. Long-term lack of external demand will affect the upper and middle reaches of the lower reaches, the impact of investment from the production. Export-oriented enterprises are facing a difficult, some migrant workers will lead to unemployment and new jobs employment difficulties, and thus have a negative impact on consumption.
Third, the stability of external demand situation is grim, it will take hard work
The complexity of the current severe situation of foreign trade. First, external demand and decline in international trade. The latest International Monetary Fund predicted that the world economy in 2009 will be 1.3 percent contraction for the first time in the world economy since World War II recession. WTO latest forecast of world trade in 2009 will drop by 9% for the largest decline since the Second World War. Second, worsening terms of trade financing, trade increased risk. At present, the global trade financing gap of up to 100 million U.S. dollars 1000-3000, importers and exporters in many countries because the funds are forced to reduce tension or business bankruptcy, has seriously affected the normal operation of international trade. At the same time, I trade the risk of export enterprises increased substantially. Third, the rise of trade protectionism, increasing the difficulty of opening up markets. Financial crisis led to the global economic recession in some countries and regions have taken to raise the import tariffs, import prohibitions or restrictions on trade protection measures, etc., into the high incidence of trade friction period. Fourth, competitive devaluation of national currencies, weakening the price competitiveness of exports. 1 quarter of 2009, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, the devaluation of the currency against the U.S. dollar, respectively, 9.6%, 5.4%, 5.3% and 2.7% against the dollar and the RMB exchange rate basically stable, the real effective exchange rate appreciation of 2.58 percent, exports to weaken my international the price competitiveness of the market.
Although China's economic operations there have been some positive changes, but the leading indicator shows that the next step, I still can not be optimistic about the export situation. At present the majority of export orders in hand to reduce the overseas buyers and more will be replaced by short-long, single, single, large single-read in small orders, the 105th Canton Fair export turnover of the 104th than 16.9 percent decline. 1 quarter of 2009, processing trade imports declined 35.7 percent, the national amount of contracted foreign investment fell 37.2 percent, the actual use of foreign investment dropped 20.6%, indicating some time to come, the processing trade and foreign export growth is weak, lack of stamina.
The leadership of the CPC Central Committee and State Council to be highly concerned about the stability. To maintain the steady growth of foreign trade with the policies and measures put in place gradually, foreign trade enterprises in the tax rebates, financing, trade facilitation, environment and so has improved significantly. Next, we must in accordance with the spirit of the Central, the difficulties and risks of re-look at some of the estimated time to deal with the crisis in the longer, the policies and measures to prepare the full number, do solid work, spare no effort, every effort to stabilize the foreign trade import and export, make full use of international financial and taxation policies to support exports, to improve the import and export of financial services, stability, promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, pay close attention to improving policies to encourage trade in services, measures to expand import, increase the level of trade facilitation, and actively respond to trade friction, to create a good international environment.