World Poultry production growth, but the decline in trade
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that this year, the world's poultry meat production is projected to grow by 1.1%, reaching 94.7 million tons, which is to report on its ten-year growth rate of the lowest one.
The reason for such a low overall growth rate largely with Asia, especially China's slowdown in the pace of progress.
Although in the past and constantly improve the purchasing power of Chinese poultry consumption had led a time of growth. Especially in the urban population, growth is rapid. But it is now by the international financial crisis, the consumption growth is in a steady-state inactivation.
Of course, if consumption aside, just from the poultry production point of view, Asia's growth is still kept up the momentum. Despite the impact of last year's feed prices are still ringing in, but this year, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Thailand's poultry production is still expected to grow. In fact, it can be said that all Asian countries, poultry production is expected this year will be increased. According to estimates, the entire poultry production in Asia will reach about 34.2 million tons, accounting for 36% of the world's total, with a slight increase compared to last year (last year of poultry production in Asia, the proportion of the world's total production, 35.5%).
In North America, subject to the impact of price increases last year, feed, poultry supplies have been tensions, combined with strong demand for human consumption, so earlier this year, the United States also increased the price of poultry. From poultry production point of view, the supply shortage in the first half of 2009 showed that this year, U.S. poultry production will drop by about 3%, dropped to 19.3 million tons.
In South America, Brazil's poultry production is expected to grow just 2% this year, reaching 10.5 million tons. At the same time, the Brazilian Poultry Exporters Association (ABEF) suggested that, to cope with the difficult rocky global market situation, the industry should be reduced the production of export products.
In Europe, the EU's market situation is expected to remain unchanged, the total poultry production is projected at 11.5 million tons or so. However, poultry production in Russia's high growth rate is expected to happen again. Although the expected value may be beyond the reach of an average of 16% over the past two years, the growth rate, but this year the figure is still expected to reach 9.4%, the total output of up to 2.4 million tons.
In Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda are suffering from feed manufacturers prices and the credit loss troubles. On the contrary, South Africa's poultry industry is being gradually out of the predicament in 2008, showing signs of recovery. This year, South Africa's poultry production is expected to grow by 5% to about 110 million tons.
Although the world poultry meat production is expected to be increased slightly, but the poultry trade prospects for the development compared with the less cause for optimism. Although when compared with other meats, poultry prices are relatively low, in the larger environment of the economic crisis should have increased sales, but this year, the world's poultry import and export trade volume is expected to decline 3%, down about 10 million tons.
Careful study, the Russian Federation to reduce import quotas, resulting in a corresponding reduction in U.S. poultry exports to the fact became the world's poultry, the main reason for decline in trade volume. It is reported that the U.S. poultry exports this year would drop to 2007 levels, about 350 million tons.
In addition, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that the EU's poultry export trade is also very likely a result of the Russian Federation, a decline in imports decline. And some poultry enterprises were eligible for the elimination of export, but also the invisible among the import and export trade of poultry has increased the difficulty.
At the same time, due to the credit reduction and voluntary export volume of Brazil's poultry exports have been the people are not optimistic. However, this year, Brazil's poultry exports are expected to be slightly higher, around 380 million tons. Among them, Brazil and China to resolve trade issues between the poultry can also be said for the Brazilian poultry exports is expected to be useful to a slight increase in 2008 - because of misgivings about the source of products, China's temporary ban of imports from Brazil poultry. At present, this problem has been resolved, Brazil, beginning in mid-May from the resumption of China's poultry export trade.
In conclusion, the changes in world poultry import and export trade, from trade balance sheet point of view, the biggest change this year, the importer purchases of the Russian Federation is expected to decline 15%. Similarly, the Ukraine and China's imports may also be reduced.