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Sharp drop in global oil and gas upstream investments this year, three years later could reproduce the tight supply and demand
Information Beijing December 9 (Xinhua Ya-jun) held here in 2010 seminar on the oil market situation, industry experts predict that this year's global oil and gas upstream investment is decreasing, after three years Guojiyoushi may reproduce the tight supply and demand.
IEA in the latest released "World Energy Outlook 2009" and said that this year compared to 2008, global oil and gas investment in the upstream areas dropped more than 900 billion U.S. dollars, down 19%, will affect 20 large oil and gas projects, and reduce the capacity of 200 million barrels. PFC Energy consulting firm also estimated that in 2009 global oil and gas upstream exploration and development investment fell by 700 billion U.S. dollars.
Institute of Contemporary International Relations Institute of world economy, Chen Fengying that the reduction in the upstream oil and gas investment in the global oil supply would pose a serious threat. The next three years, that 2012 will be a strong rebound in the world economy may be in excess of 3.5% overall growth, when oil demand is likely to be re-ignited, and as oil production cycle, generally 3-5 years, this year upstream oil and gas investment will lead to a sharp decline in 2012, when crude oil production has dropped significantly. At present, global oil surplus production capacity is about 5 million -800 million barrels a day in 2012 may drop to 3 million -600 million barrels.
She said that last year before the outbreak of the financial crisis, the international oil prices above 100 U.S. dollars a barrel, summarized by the world's remaining oil production capacity was reduced to 3 million barrels a day, causing the market panic in the international crude oil supply. This year's sharp drop in upstream oil and gas investment, as well as the world economy in 2012 after a strong rebound, will set off another tight international crude oil supplies, oil prices could rise to 110 U.S. dollars a barrel or even 120 dollars, the era of high oil prices will once again come.
PFC Energy consulting firm, said Yao Li Chief Representative of Beijing Representative Office 2000 to-2008 years, particularly 2005-2008, the global upstream oil and gas investment in the rapid growth in 2008 compared with 2000, the upstream investment growth by 1.5 times. However, due to exploration and development expenditures over the same period increased by 2.5-fold, and the oil companies will increase upstream investment is mainly used for development rather than exploration, in the past 10 years, the world's incremental oil and gas reserves dropped by 60% more for the future global oil and gas the long-term stable supply conceals potential problems.
According to PFC Energy consulting firm data, since 2002 the upstream oil and gas exploration and development of the world's average unit costs continue to soar in 2005 rose to 11 U.S. dollars a barrel, almost-year period 1991-2001 the average cost of 5.49 U.S. dollars a barrel, twice as ; 2008 is risen to 21.4 U.S. dollars per barrel, but also doubled. 2006-2007, in the global upstream oil and gas investments, input to the development into the field of exploration investment and investment in the field from the ratio of three times in 2000 expanded to six times.
2009-12-09
