February 22 -26 days a week the world's wheat, News: Technical rebound in the external market is strong, wheat prices

Beijing DELHI, February 28 news: As of February 26 the week, global wheat prices steady rise, mainly due to a technical rebound, weaker dollar, the international crude oil futures firm. In addition, corn and soybean markets rose, but also to support the wheat market has brought parity.

Analysts said the situation in wheat market fundamentals are still bad. However, after the recent slump, the wheat market has been severely oversold technical, should be revised anyway. In addition, the wheat futures market, non-commercial speculative funds still hold a large number of short positions, which makes wheat market is sensitive to the impact of short-covering. This week in February, the last trading week, very active short-covering, which supports the rebound in wheat prices. Weaker dollar also boosted the U.S. wheat market rally. Usually weaker dollar will increase the competitiveness of U.S. wheat exports.

UN Food and Agriculture (FAO) said this week that, after two consecutive years of increase, the year's global wheat production is likely to substantially reduced, as farmers switch to other crops. However, ending stocks would be sufficient to ensure stable supply. According to FAO projections, in June 2010 world wheat ending stocks are likely to 183.5 million tons, up 28% over the same period the previous year. Affected by high wheat prices led in 2008 a substantial increase in world wheat acreage. 2009 world wheat production is projected at 678.6 million tons, higher than in 2007 625.5 million tons. But the FAO said that high inventory and falling prices, prompting the United States and other major countries, as farmers switch to corn and soybeans and other crops. Production is now forecast was premature, but the world's wheat production may be reduced.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook Conference on the U.S. wheat production this year will be reduced by 12%, to 1.945 billion bushels, the sown area will be reduced by 9%, to 53.8 million acres. According to analysts, the Black Sea wheat farmers will be reduced this year because of the huge inventory.

In India, the federal government will this year's wheat production forecast is raised to a record 82 million tons, which means that the possibility of India's large-scale import of wheat decreased, which would put pressure on the prices at home and abroad. But it is now facing the Indian government in March after the problem of inadequate storage capacity of wheat, when the wheat harvest would begin. Indian government may have to rely heavily on the private sector to acquire wheat, at the same time, it may sell a large number of wheat stocks to free up storage. The current 82 million tons wheat production forecast is not only more than February 12 of the forecast by 1.7 million tons, but also much higher than the previous year's actual output of 80.7 million tons. Than the United States Department of Agriculture forecast by 1.5 million tons.

According to traders said that from the beginning of this year in June, through diplomatic channels, India could export up to 250 million tons of wheat, wheat this year to release a new warehouse. India's wheat yield for several consecutive years, while the government to ban wheat exports, which leads to wheat storage problems highlighted. But because domestic grain prices soaring, the Government will not abolish the ban on wheat exports.

Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) said that this year Canada's farmers will produce 24 million tons of wheat, compared to 26.515 million tons the previous year due to the huge global wheat supplies, suppressing prices prompted farmers to sow other crops. CWB 2010 world wheat production 651 million tons, down from the previous year's 637.6 billion tons. This is higher than the January forecast of 7 million tons.

(Li Lei for reference only)