Accelerated decline in bearish macro PTA


After the earthquake in Japan, PTA prices experienced a brief period of rebound. However, monetary tightening by domestic and foreign policy factors, the Board, PTA of the price rebound fell again after oscillation. Currently, the domestic monetary tightening is still no sign of slowing down, yesterday announced that the domestic interest rates again. PTA PX supplies of raw materials due to short-term boom in Japan after the earthquake, there highs adjustment, and the downstream sectors of polyester because of their rising inventories, and end demand has not improved, while the sales are more general, inhibit the PTA for the high price of buying intention. September contract prices by the second half of the PTA production capacity is expected to put into effect, the trend is weaker than in May, short-term downside risks still to continue, million mark should be strong support.

Into the middle of April, starting with the downstream demand replenishment, PTA after falling short of the price more likely to usher in a strong rebound.

Earthquake for the global economic recovery in Japan put the haze, the market for domestic monetary tightening is expected to continue weakening. But again the following week the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio announced, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, the foreign situation continued unrest. The impact of high prices of crude oil by the United States, Europe and other developed economies, inflation has significantly increased. European Central Bank has repeatedly revealed the determination of anti-inflation, and attitude will be the first in the April 7 meeting of central bank announced a rate hike. However, under the theme of the anti-inflation, debt crisis, but Europe does not corpuscles. Total volatile commodity trends in the external environment and domestic tightening policy, under the influence, continuing the pattern of weak grind.

In the context of the overall commodity weakness, PTA of the price it is difficult to island. PTA of the industry chain from the point of view, the upstream raw material PX three days by the earthquake in Japan jumped 150 dollars, the emergence of the trend adjusted highs. Ukraine 100 million tons while the domestic petrochemical production capacity of PX devices in February of this year has been in the low load operation, South Korea S-Oil's PX device is also about 90 million tons in the April production. PX short supply strider cherry  Um basket put the bad acts  Di gluttonous frog A stony soil Guo  yo take along Bi X and the spread of raw materials is too large, the U.S. crude oil prices weakening support for the cost of PX. U.S. crude oil down there is a big risk, the PX down also will increase the risk of adjustment. However, by the PX 2011, the overall impact of tight supply capacity, PX short-term adjustment will likely remain high after the operation.

Short-term weakness relative to the raw materials, PTA downstream polyester no signs of improvement in sales, marketing general, factors that did not reflect the season. As cotton, polyester and other raw material costs rose sharply over last year, and there was a marked increase labor costs, terminal weaving, plus price increases difficult to play the corporate product prices, profit has shrunk dramatically, thus inhibiting the further demand for high-priced raw materials. Cotton yarn and other products together with rising inventories, tight monetary policy in the circumstances, the enterprise funds is even more stretched. Limited demand for the upstream end result is more general Polyester sales, inventory, increased gradually after the Spring Festival, now more than the average level since 2009. Polyester their production and profits are in the second half of 2010 and 2011, significant production capacity of polyester after the sharp decline. Rise in inventories, sluggish sales and profit levels of compression and restricted the overall PTA polyester plant for the high willingness to buy up.

Adjustments in raw material prices and lower reaches of the high demand and did not improve the situation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange last week issued "Circular on Further Strengthening Foreign Exchange business management issues related to notice" after a heavy psychological blow to the PTA market. The notice limits the number of enterprises Negotiating Financing. Liquidity crunch in the current domestic situation, the more difficult for the cash flow of some enterprises is undoubtedly worse. Notice after the introduction, PTA, the outer disk prices have fallen sharply, the market was bearish atmosphere is also enhanced. PTA9 month contract price of Humpty, a new adjustment has been low. The front-month contract in May of the market price is also bearish plunge under the influence of the atmosphere, and the situation appeared premium. May, September contract prices once again widened the margin upside down, close to May 2009 reached historical maximum spread 700 yuan / ton.

From the PTA's overall supply and demand situation, in the first half will continue to maintain an appropriate pattern of tight supply and demand. And in April, May will have a lot of domestic PTA plant planned maintenance, is expected to reduce output of 25 million tons PTA. Although the second half of July, August has Yi Sheng 2.7 million tons of new capacity into production, but the real production is still unknown whether the schedule. Once put into extension, the September contract price in the supply side of the background is still tight, there are still room for speculation. The May contract despite a continuous decline in open interest, has less than 10 million in hand, but the actual exchange relative to the current 50,000 tons for delivery in the supply, forcing high-risk still exists.

Overall, affected by the macroeconomic side, PTA price of short-term downside risks of not fully released. However, I believe PTA9 this month contract to launch a new round of price decline in the probability of small, in the May contract price and open interest has emerged premium delivery inventory levels are still much higher than the case of the delivery month approaches gradually over time, continue to face down the possibility of retaliatory rebound is relatively large. And if the May contract once stabilized, the September contract price of the premium rate has been great, the space will also be a larger rally.

2011-04-06