Maike Futures: bearish fundamentals and the surrounding cotton market weakness superposition


Overnight outside the disk, the U.S. stock market and commodities continue to fall, continue to lead ICE cotton futures fell sharply, the contract prices of 300-400 points. Other than by a poor environment, the year a large number of U.S. cotton to cancel the contract is also cause for concern, U.S. cotton exports would have difficulty to achieve USDA's expectations. Cotton market fundamentals and recent stressful external environment, cotton prices continued to bearish.
News, U.S. cotton exports Weekly (2011.04.22-04.28): year contract to continue as a negative, shipment volume increased significantly. Week, 2010/11 U.S. net exports of upland cotton contract volume -1474 tons. 2010/11 U.S. cotton export shipments of 9.64 million tons, up 21% over the previous week, compared with average growth of 123% the first four weeks.

Net American Pima cotton in 2010/11 contract amount of 317 tons exported, 72% lower than the previous week, compared with the previous four-week average decrease of 47%. Pima shipments in 2010/11 to 1,723 tons.

The international market, China's main port yesterday offer full range of imported cotton fell 6 cents, Egypt, long-staple cotton has fallen by 2-3 cents. ICE Futures as a relatively strong forward contracts, and the recent textile enterprises for delivery next spring, some interest outside the cotton, so new flowers offer foreign smaller decline. Over time, the market focus has shifted to the cultivation and production prospects for the new year, the current price of the new flowers are quite attractive to buyers for the short term, the market will remain bearish in recent months, far from settling on the momentum.

The domestic market, spot cotton market yesterday by the foreign poor, and domestic bad constantly, textile product inventory is too high, monetary tightening, rising labor costs pressures facing the textile enterprises, the enthusiasm of the greatly reduced purchase of cotton, the domestic spot price of cotton subsequently continued to decline, accept the price of textiles in the lint down 500 just after the cut again this morning, 1,000 yuan / ton, three cotton accepted price down to 24,000 yuan / ton, far below the spot the actual transaction, with the electronic trading market , and the already fragile market confidence blow.

Spot price, May 5, the U.S. C / A Cotton's offer of 184.60 (cents / lb, the same below), the general port trade off delivery price of RMB 30,857 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax, the same below.) Australian cotton quoted at 183.60, off the general port RMB 30,721 yuan trading port delivery price / ton. Uzbekistan cotton quoted at 194.60, usually port trade off delivery price of RMB 32,487 tons. West African cotton is quoted at 204.80, usually port trade off delivery price of RMB 34,146 yuan / ton. A national cotton price index 28,059 yuan / ton, down 91 yuan; B index of 26,511 yuan, down 123 yuan.

Market analysis, the U.S. cotton weekly export data show that U.S. cotton continues to be a large number of canceled contracts, coupled with weak financial markets around the overnight U.S. cotton prices continue down the main contract testing of 143 cents / lb important support. 09 Zheng cotton prices yesterday filling on October 21 last year to form the upward gap, as a whole, the weak form has not changed.

Operation suggested that a single space to continue to hold, before the low case of strong rebound, part of the profits.

2011-05-06