Viscose filament yarn: global capacity overshoot and high export and spread

Raw material for viscose filament yarn pulp industry chain and downstream applied to silk, cotton, knitting, weaving and knitting with wire, the system cashmere industry. Viscose filament yarn mostly cotton linter as the raw material, made of cotton pulp through multi-channel process, and then chemical treatment solution was prepared viscose, viscose solution obtained by mixing viscose filament yarn spinning. Viscose filament yarn can be used alone as a beautiful silk weaving, spinning and various silk quilt cover Fuchun, also can be used with cotton, silk, synthetic fiber woven into camlet, satin and crepe so fragrant.

Global production capacity out of the stock of viscose filament yarn speed, the new Ministry of Industry and production was banned, the industry oligopoly characteristics appear.

Overseas off before 2007 at 4 million tons capacity in 2010, down 1 million tons annual capacity again; China since 2008, shut down the process of viscose filament yarn production capacity to accelerate, according to statistics shut down production capacity of 1.9 million tons. Distribution of the current global production capacity 20 million tons in China, India 4.5 million tons capacity, the total global capacity of 36 million tons, industry oligopoly characteristics appeared further strain the global supply and demand. For new production capacity, in April 2010 the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology "access conditions for viscose fiber industry" in the new viscose filament project is strictly prohibited, and from June 2010 started, since the industry was completely new way to enter sealed.

Viscose filament at high capacity utilization, exports resumed after the financial crisis to a record high. Annual production of viscose filament yarn in 2009 18.7 million tons of capacity utilization to 93%; export of viscose filament yarn in 2008 by the international financial crisis substantially reduced, from 70,000 tons in 2007 to 4.6 big tons. However, with overseas production shut down, recovery of global economy in 2009, the sharp rise in Chinese exports of viscose filament yarn, exports have recovered to pre-crisis levels.

Difficult to maintain high pulp prices, continued strength of viscose filament yarn spread. Up on a short fiber and pulp, viscose filament yarn prices rose a strong; the first round of the upstream or short fiber, pulp with the recent fall, prices of viscose filament stays, we believe that exports pick up in the background , the viscose filament yarn prices in the entire industry chain will continue strong. Viscose staple fiber / viscose filament yarn production ratio of 8:1, so the decision to pulp the price of viscose staple fiber demand, the current price of viscose staple fiber industry, determine the break-even situation is difficult to maintain high pulp prices. Looking back 1 to 2 years, we believe that a large number of domestic dissolving pulp production from the perspective of supply, completely reverse the current relatively tight supply and demand of pulp, the price compared to short fiber, viscose staple fiber the situation is more firm, so the next 1 to 2 Pulp profit on the transfer to the downstream industry chain is expected, will continue to strengthen production capacity of viscose filament yarn.

Viscose filament elasticity estimates focus on listed companies. We are here to do only the elastic calculation, the specific stocks to see us after the report. Units of capital from the sequences of viscose filament yarn production capacity, flexibility in decreasing order of Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000,949), Hubei Golden Ring (000615), Nanjing Chemical Fibre (600889), Jilin Chemical Fiber (000 420), Baoding Swan (000687), Shandong Dragon (000677).