PTA business costs down and profits of producers still need security and stability
Since late February, the domestic PTA (purified terephthalic acid) from the high prices began to fall back and remain weak adjustment. Analysis of the industry, although prices have fallen 16% in PTA, but the profitability of PTA producers are still good. In the second half, due to the release of new capacity, the domestic self-sufficiency rate of PTA will be significantly increased, will greatly ease the domestic supply gap.
Significant price highs
December 2010 onwards, PTA spot prices from 9170 yuan / ton in early February of this year rose to the 11,780 yuan / ton, an increase of 28%. February 15, PTA1109 contract price is a record 12,508 yuan / ton to a new high. In the most optimistic forecasts for oil prices, PTA prices also high, the February PTA prices began to fall late, May 6 in the spot price has dropped to 10,050 yuan / ton.
A typical PTA industry chain is: oil-MX-PX-PTA-PET chips - polyester staple fiber and polyester filament. From the perspective of industry chain, PTA prices by cost and demand for downstream polyester polyester two factors.
From a cost perspective, loss of raw material PX part of the price drop makes the PTA support. In the fiber network data, PX spot prices from 2 at the end of the contract settlement price of 13,500 yuan / ton in May down to advance the contract price of 12,500 yuan / ton. From the downstream perspective, the Spring Festival in February textile enterprises face shortage of workers, poor product sales polyester industry, inventory is also difficult to digest the factors that led to falling prices of PTA.
Cho Chong Information PTA researcher Dan Yingfeng that macroeconomic policy emphasizes price stability, in particular, on April 1 this year, imposed foreign exchange controls, suppression of the hot money inflows, on the PTA and other bulk commodities speculators against bigger. Shiying Feng said that the current price of PTA is more rational, market outlook is expected to be weak shock pattern, pre-factors in price increases too much speculation.
Still protect the profits of producers
Although the PTA prices slid 16%, but the raw material prices have also dropped PX, PTA and supply gap throughout the year, and the first half of the rising demand for polyester production capacity increase, a variety of factors, the current PTA production corporate profits are still protected.
PTA production chain now concentrated in the middle and lower pressure. From the margins of view, the highest PTA upstream, midstream downstream polyester sector by getting goods will reduce Polyester Fangzhi impact business, stock pressure, profit margins, followed by the downstream polyester textile enterprises are facing tightening of monetary policy, energy conservation and RMB appreciation is more modest profit of multiple pressures.
The boom of the current PTA business getting goods from the stability of PET can be seen. China Textile City (600,790, stock it) the transaction data, the last week of April, sales of knitted fabrics filament line soared last week, weekly trading volume of more than 1020 meters, 5.8 million meters over the previous week rose more than last year doubled over the same period more than 4.1 million meters.
Shiying Feng said the company is generally polyester PTA contract signed in early cargo, accounting for eight to Jiucheng, to the end of PTA producers out before the settlement price, will make one or two into the spot, therefore, will lead to the downstream end of each month filament sale of small peaks.
Treasure Island researcher Wang Jie oil reference materials that the PTA website, even if the PTA prices in the 10000 ~ 10,500 yuan / ton hovering, manufacturers are still more than 1,000 yuan / ton considerable margin.
Far East Petrochemical Deputy Ma Xiumei approved the idea, she said, PTA orders are about, polyester cargo business is to get the contract. Although the PTA prices down, but raw material prices are down, corporate profits are still good.
In addition, the reporter learned that Yi Sheng PTA and the Far East petrochemical producers already have polyester production processes, the new PTA production capacity of the original expansion of the upstream industry chain, to more effectively reduce energy consumption, cost and size advantage will be reflected.
Domestic self-sufficiency rate will significantly increase
PTA production capacity of the global area and the major consumption areas in Asia, 2008 to 2010, consumption in Asia increased rapidly downstream PTA. PTA prices continued to rise as production is also a substantial increase in profitability. 2010, PTA plant load rate of the industry about 90%.
This reporter has learned this year to early next year, the Mainland China alone will add about 5.7 million tons PTA plant, industry usher in a new round of production run. Yi Sheng addition there will be 2.5 million tons petrochemical production capacity expansion by mid-year release, the three bedrooms Lane (600,370, stock it) 120 ~ 1.3 million tons will be put into operation from August to September, the Far East will also be two million tons petrochemical end of this year or release early next year.
Dan Yingfeng introduced in 2010, domestic PTA production is 1200 tons, imported 6.25 million tons, self-sufficiency rate of about 66%. Currently the monthly PTA imports 50 million tons of imports in 2011 at 600 million tons.
PTA information in the researcher Dan Leilei Yu told reporters that new capacity is zero in the first half of 2011 the case, the current PTA production enterprises has grown to 98% plant load, the domestic self-sufficiency rate of 77%.
PET and PTA in accordance with the current downstream capacity expansion is almost synchronous speed, is expected to add 5.6 million tons next year's PTA production capacity is put into production, the domestic supply gap will be greatly eased. Industry insiders estimate that 90% of the device according to the load calculation, PTA industry next year will reach 80% self-sufficiency.