4 Reasons Sourcing from China will be More Expensive in 2008 4原因来自中国的采购将更为昂贵，在2008年

China has been trying to stem an ever growing trade surplus, manage domestic inflation, move development from the coastal areas to the inland areas and decrease its dependence on heavily polluting industries.中国一直在试图干一日益增加的贸易盈余，管理国内的通货膨胀，移动的发展，从沿海地区向内陆地区，并减少其依赖于重污染行业。

Because of these objectives, manufacturing in China is becoming more expensive as China adds in hidden (and sometimes not so hidden) costs into the sourcing equation.由于这些目标，制造业在中国正在成为较昂贵的，作为中国加入隐藏的（有时并非如此隐藏）费用纳入采购方程。

Here are the top 4 reasons you can expect costs to continue to rise in 2008:这里是顶部的四理由，您可以预期的成本继续上升，在2008年：

1. 1 。 Reduced VAT Refund 降低增值税退款

When Chinese manufacturers purchase goods domestically for use in manufacturing, they pay a VAT (value added tax).当中国制造商购买的商品在国内使用在制造业，他们所支付的增值税（增值税） 。 For people in the United States or others who are not familiar with the term VAT, it’s essentially a sales tax.为人民，在美国或其他人谁不熟悉的任期增值税，它本质上销售税。 Historically, the Chinese government allowed for generous VAT refunds if the final manufactured product is for export.从历史上看，中国政府允许慷慨的增值税退款如果最终制造的产品是供出口。 However, as of July 1, 2007, China has changed its refund formula.然而，截至2007年7月1日，中国已改变了退款公式。 Many products have had their VAT refunds completely eliminated and many others have been reduced.许多产品有其增值税退款完全消除和许多其他已减少。 Since Chinese factories typically take these VAT rebates into account when calculating profit margins, the reduction or elimination of them is likely to raise prices (or drastically shrink profit margins).由于中国的工厂通常采取这些增值税退税时考虑到在计算利润率，减少或消除他们很可能以提高价格（或大幅萎缩，利润率） 。

There is an excellent set of PDF files created by mfg.com which detail exactly the products that have had VAT changes as well as those that are duty free altogether.有是一个很好的一套PDF档案所创造的mfg.com详细说明正是产品已增值税的变化，以及那些有责任完全免费。 They have all been translated into English.他们都被翻译成英语。 Since these are PDF files, they may load slowly depending on your internet connection.因为这是PDF档案，他们可能会慢慢负荷取决于您的网际网路连线。

Please find them here: 请找到他们在这里：

• Overview of Affected Products概述了受影响的产品 , ，
• Products with LOWERED Rebates产品与降低退税
• Products with CANCELLED Rebates产品取消退税
• Products that are DUTY FREE产品是免税的

2. 2 。 RMB Currency Appreciation vs USD 人民币升值与美元

Until mid-2005, China maintained a peg on the RMB to the USD at 8.27.直到2005年年中，中国保持了PEG对人民币对美元在8.27 。 This provided an element of stability and took the currency risk out of the sourcing equation.这提供了一个稳定因素并采取了货币风险失控采购方程。 However, over the past year and a half, China has begun appreciating the RMB against the dollar.但是，在过去一年半以来，中国已经开始升值，人民币对美元的汇率。 As of this blog article, the current conversion is 7.26.作为本博客的文章，目前的转换是7.26 。 Furthermore, many experts are estimating the rate to dip well into the 6’s over the next year.此外，许多专家估计，利率下滑到6月的超过明年。

Here is a chart from Yahoo Finance showing the USD vs. RMB trend:这里是一个图表，从雅虎的财务显示，美元与人民币的趋势：

While nobody knows for sure what the ‘final’ trading range will be, there are a few interesting commentaries out there.虽然没有人知道肯定有什么'最后'交易区间将，有几个有趣的评论，指出有。 This这个 article from Bloomberg文章从彭博 quotes Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, saying the RMB may quadruple in the next decade.行情吉姆罗杰斯，主席beeland的利益和公司的前任合伙人索罗斯说，人民币可能翻两番，在未来的十年。

The currency has advanced 10.5 percent since the government scrapped a peg to the dollar in July 2005, gains that US officials say are insufficient to reduce a trade surplus that swelled to $23.9 billion in September.货币拥有先进的10.5 ％ ，由于政府取消了1美元挂钩，在2005年7月，取得美国官员说，是不够的，以减少贸易盈余膨胀到二百三十九点零零亿美元在9月。 Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, said yesterday the yuan may quadruple in the next decade.吉姆罗杰斯，主席beeland的利益和公司的前任合伙人索罗斯昨天表示，人民币可能翻两番，在未来的十年。

The yuan is “the best currency to buy right now,” Rogers told investors in Amsterdam, adding that he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and into yuan.人民币汇率是“最好的货币购买的权利，现在， ”罗杰斯说，投资者在阿姆斯特丹，补充说，他是把他的所有资产的美元和到元。 China is “going to be the most important country in the 21st century.”中国是“走出去是最重要的国家，在二十一世纪” 。

The currency climbed 0.16 percent to 7.4926 per dollar as of the 5:30 pm close in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.货币上涨0.16 ％ ，至7.4926美元，作为该下午5点30分关闭在上海，根据数据所编纂的彭博。 Non-deliverable forward contracts show traders are betting the yuan will reach 7.0070 in 12 months, a gain of 6.9 percent from the spot rate, and 6.95 by the end of 2008.不交收远期合约显示，贸易商投注人民币汇率将达到7.0070 ，在12个月，涨幅6.9 ％ ，从即期汇率，和6.95 ，由2008年年底。

On a side note, if you’re importing to Europe, the Euro has actually been appreciating against the RMB, so for now you guys are ok!在一个方注意，如果您输入到欧洲，欧元实际上已升值，对人民币，所以现在你们是确定！ Check out a recent Yahoo Finance chart showing the Euro vs RMB trend.检查了最近雅虎的财务图表，显示欧元对人民币的趋势。

3. 3 。 Increased Costs Associated with Importing Raw Materials 所增加的成本与进口原料

China said on July 23 ^rd , 2007 that it would begin requiring that exporters put down a deposit for half the amount they spend importing 1,853 raw materials.中国说， 7月²³日， 2007年，它将开始要求出口商放下存款的一半金额，他们花1853进口原料。 A quote from this引述这 People’s Daily article市民的日常文章 summarizes the policy.总结政策。

Enterprises which are engaged in the production of these products are required to have guarantee deposits in the Bank of China, the designated bank of China Customs, for a contracted period of time, according to the statement jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and China Customs.企业所从事的生产，这些产品都要求有保证存款在中国银行，指定的中国银行，海关，合同的时间内，根据该声明，联合发布的商业部（商务部）和中国海关。

If these enterprises fail to sell their products within the time scale dictated by the contracts, the customs will ask the bank to keep their deposits and interest for taxation.如果这些企业不出售其产品与时间尺度取决于合同，海关会要求银行保持他们的存款和利息征税。

“We are striving to improve the development of China’s processing trade in a bid to promote trade balance and reduce trade surplus,” said Wei Jianguo, vice minister of commerce. “我们正努力改善中国的发展，加工贸易在一个出价，以促进贸易平衡，减少贸易盈余，说： ”魏建国，副部长。

These new regulations will require a larger cash outlay for large contracts by Chinese factories.这些新规定将需要较大的现金支出为大型合同，由中国的工厂。 Therefore, it’s more likely that they will need to borrow money to meet this requirement.因此，它的更可能是他们将需要借钱，以满足这个要求。 Borrowing money costs money and that cost is likely to be passed along.借钱的成本钱，成本是有可能予以通过沿。

4. 4 。 Labor Costs Continue to Rise 劳动力成本继续上升;

Labor, once assumed to be endless in China, has been ‘drying up’ for a number of years now.劳动，一旦被假定为无休止的在中国，一直'干涸'了数年，现在。 China’s factories depend on a constant supply of new migrant laborers coming from the countryside.中国的工厂，依赖于不断供应新农民工来自农村。 Typically every Chinese New Year, as many people return to their home town as can afford to do so.通常每一个中国人新的一年里，由于很多人返回他们的家乡，作为能够这样做。 And each year, some old and many new laborers come to the cities in search of work after the holidays.每年，一些老了许多新的劳动力来向城市寻找工作的假期后。

However, as villages have become more prosperous, with more family members making and sending money back home, this endless supply of new labor, has began to shrink.不过，由于乡村已成为更加繁荣，更多的家庭成员的决策和寄钱回家乡，这无休止的供应，新的劳动，已开始萎缩。 Because of this and other factors, labor costs continue to rise.因为这和其他因素，劳动力成本继续上升。 China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first half of 2007 wages were up 18.5% compared to the year earlier period alone!中国国家统计局的统计报告说，在2007年上半年的工资增长了18.5 ％ ，相比去年同期，仅！

In addition, China as of January 1, 2008 enacted new labor laws that allow for much more worker protection, but of course at a cost.此外，中国，截至2008年1月1日颁布了新的劳动法规，让更多的工人的保护，但当然在成本。 Global Labor Strategies has全球劳动力战略 an article一篇文章 with many links to other blogs and newspaper articles discussing the reaction worldwide to the new law.与许多链接到其他的博客和报纸文章讨论的反应，世界各地的新法律。

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